Abstract
Although wait-times for hip fracture surgery have been linked to mortality and are being used as quality-of-care indicators worldwide, controversy exists about the duration of the wait that leads to complications. Our objective was to use new population-based wait-time data to emprically derive an optimal time window in which to conduct hip fracture surgery before the risk of complications increases.
We used health administrative data from Ontario, Canada to identify hip fracture patients between 2009 and 2014. The main exposure was the time from hospital arrival to surgery (in hours). The primary outcome was mortality within 30 days. Secondary outcomes included a composite of mortality or other medical complications (MI, DVT, PE, and pneumonia) also within 30 days. Risk-adjusted cubic splines modeled the probability of each complication according to wait-time. The inflection point (in hours) when complications began to increase was used to define ‘early’ and ‘delayed’ surgery. To evaluate the robustness of this definition, outcomes amongst propensity-score matched early and delayed patients were compared using percent absolute risk differences (% ARDs, with 95% confidence intervals [CIs]).
There were 42,230 patients who met entry criteria. Their mean age was 80.1 (±10.7) and the majority were female (70.5%). The risk of complications modeled by cubic splines consistently increased when wait-times were greater than 24 hours, irrespective of the complication considered. Compared to 13,731 propensity-score matched patients who received surgery earlier, 13,731 patients receiving surgery after 24 hours had a significantly higher risk of 30-day mortality (N=898 versus N=790, % ARD 0.79 [95% CI 0.23 to 1.35], p = .006) and the composite outcome (N=1,680 versus N=1,383, % ARD 2.16 [95% CI 1.43 to 2.89], p < .001). Overall, there were 14,174 patients (33.6%) who received surgery within 24 hours and 28,056 patients (66.4%) who received surgery after 24 hours.
Increased wait-time was associated with a greater risk for 30-day mortality and other complications. The finding that a wait-time of 24 hours represents a threshold defining higher risk may inform existing hip fracture guidelines. Since two-thirds of patients did not receive surgery within this timeframe, performance improvement efforts that reduce wait-times are warranted.
