The rising prevalence of osteoarthritis, associated with an ageing population, is expected to deliver increasing demand across Scotland for primary hip and knee arthroplasty in the future.

Understanding the scale of potential change to operative workflow is essential to ensure adequate provision of services, and prevent prolonged waiting times that can cause patient harm.

We therefore set out to provide projections of future primary hip and knee arthroplasty out to 2038 utilising historical trend data (2008–2018) from the Scottish Arthroplasty Project. All analyses were performed using the Holt's exponential smoothing projection method with the forecast package in R statistics. Results were adjusted for projected future population estimates provided by National Records of Scotland. Independent age & sex group predictions were also performed. All results are presented per 100,000 population at-risk per year (/100k/year).

The predicted rise of primary hip arthroplasty for all ages is from 120/100k/year in 2018 to 152/100k/year in 2038, a 27% increase. The predicted rise of primary knee arthroplasty for all ages is from 164/100k/year in 2018 to 220/100k/year in 2038, a 34% increase. Based on a static 3 day length of stay average this would see 4280 additional patient bed days for hips, and 7392 for knees, required nationally per year by 2038. The associated supplementary cost to the NHS is anticipated to be around £21 million per annum.

Knowledge of increasing resource utilisation and cost associated with predicted future demand for primary hip and knee arthroplasty provides key information for service organisation and delivery.

The aims were: (1) assess the influence of COVID-19 on mortality in hip fracture; (2) identify predictors of COVID-19 status, and (3) investigate whether social lockdown influenced the epidemiology of hip fracture.

A multicentre retrospective study was conducted of all patients presenting to six hospitals with hip fracture over a 46-day period (23 days pre-/post-lockdown). Demographics, residence, place of injury, presentation blood tests, Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, time to surgery, operation, ASA grade, anaesthetic, length of stay, COVID-19 status, and 30-day mortality were recorded.

Of 317 patients with hip fracture 27 (8.5%) had a positive COVID-19 test; only 7 (26%) had symptoms on admission. COVID-19-positive patients had significantly lower 30-day survival compared to those without COVID-19 (67% versus 92%, p<0.001). COVID-19 was independently associated with increased 30-day mortality adjusting for: (1) age, sex, residence (HR 2.93, p=0.008); (2) Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (HR 3.52, p=0.001), and (3) ASA (HR 3.45, p=0.004). Platelet count predicted subsequent COVID-19 status; a value <217 ×109/L was 68% specific and sensitive (95% CI 58 to 77, p=0.002). A similar number of patients presented with hip fracture pre-lockdown (n=160) and post-lockdown (n=157); there was no significant difference in demographics, place of injury, Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, time to surgery, ASA, or management.

COVID-19 was independently associated with an increased 30-day mortality in hip fracture. Most patients with COVID-19 lacked suggestive symptoms at presentation. Platelet count was an indicator of risk of COVID-19 infection. These findings have urgent implications for the delivery of hip fracture services.

Aims

The primary aim was to assess the independent influence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on 30-day mortality for patients with a hip fracture. The secondary aims were to determine whether: 1) there were clinical predictors of COVID-19 status; and 2) whether social lockdown influenced the incidence and epidemiology of hip fractures.

Hip fracture care is complex multi-disciplinary. We hypothesise that quality of care is affected by variance in resources between ‘in-hours’ (Monday-Friday, 0800–1700) and ‘out-of-hours’ services.

This prospective multicentre national cohort study assessed quality of care by evaluating adherence to the evidence-based Scottish Standards of Care for Hip Fracture Patients. Data was collected by the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit for 15174 patients admitted to any of 22 Scottish hospitals from January 2014-April 2018.

11197/15174 (73.8%) patients were admitted out-of-hours. They were significantly less likely to meet the following Standards: ED Big-6-Bundle (OR 0.85, p= 0.002); Time in ED <4 hours (OR 0.76, p< 0.001); avoidance of repeated fasting (OR 0.80, p< 0.001), and avoidance of prolonged fluid fasting (OR 0.83, p< 0.001). Out-of-hours admissions were more likely to receive: geriatric assessment <3 days (OR 1.16, p< 0.001); OT input <3 days (OR 1.10, p= 0.013), and PT input <2 days (OR 1.44, p< 0.001). There were no significant differences for: Time to Theatre <36 hours; Inpatient Care Bundle <24 hours, and Post-op Day 1 Mobilisation.

Quality of hip fracture care is affected by time of admission. ED care is poorer out-of-hours, which may reflect limited resources, and out-of-hours admissions are more likely to be excessive fasted excessively. Weekday in-hours admissions are less likely to receive geriatric and allied health professional input in the days following admission, which may reflect the reduced weekend services. Examination of out-of-hours service organisation is required for the pursuit of consistent, equitable care for hip fracture patients.

Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is an increasingly prevalent complication of lower limb arthroplasty (LLA). Even a transient decrease in kidney function has been shown to be associated with increased mortality and development of subsequent Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD).

We set out to determine which perioperative factors are associated with AKI development at our institution through a retrospective cohort methodology. Patients who underwent primary elective LLA from 01/10/16 to 31/09/17 were included, with relevant perioperative data collected from electronic patient records. AKI was classified according to the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) criteria.

Overall 6.6% of 686 patients developed an AKI post-operatively. These individuals had a significantly longer length of stay (Median 7 days vs 5 days for no AKI [p<0.001]). Independent predictors of AKI on multivariate regression analysis included: Diabetes (OR 3.10, 95% CI 1.34 to 7.20; p=0.008) CKD (OR 5.07, 95% CI 2.60 to 9.86; p=<0.001) and male sex (OR female sex 0.33, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.63; p=0.001). A model including any of these three risk factors predicted 82.2% of patients with an AKI. The overall AKI rate for this model was 11.2% compared to 2.3% for those without any of the three criteria. Only 11% of patients had IV fluid continued beyond the recovery room.

AKI is a significant problem in LLA. Knowledge of associated risk factors will allow for targeted interventions to decrease AKI incidence. Continuation of IV fluids until the first post-operative morning for high risk individuals may be a simple method of reducing AKI.

Aims

We set out to determine if there is a difference in perioperative outcomes between early and delayed surgery in paediatric supracondylar humeral fractures in the absence of vascular compromise through a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Evidence suggests as little as 32percnt; of those with a displaced intracapsular hip fracture who meet the NICE eligibility criteria currently undergo a total hip replacement (THR). The reason for this discrepancy is not clear. This study therefore set out to examine the reasons behind this lack of adherence to these guidelines through the use of a questionnaire to current Trauma & Orthopaedic surgery consultants across Scotland.

An invitation to take part in the survey was distributed through the Scottish Committee for Orthopaedics & Trauma (SCOT) email address list. A series of 10 questions were designed to determine the background of participants, their experience at performing hip fracture surgery (including THR) and their thoughts regarding its use in the hip fracture setting. Results were collated at the end of the study period and quantitatively analysed where possible.

There were 91 responses in total. 53percnt; of individuals said they would offer those meeting the NICE criteria a THR less than 76percnt; of the time. The most commonly used alternative was a cemented bipolar hemiarthroplasty (51percnt;). Hip surgeons were more likely to perform or supervise THR for hip fracture than non-hip surgeons (p<0.0001). There were a wide variety of reasons why people would not offer a THR including dislocation rate, technical complexity and inadequate evidence for use.

Overall this study highlights current trends and barriers in the provision of THR to hip fracture patients. This knowledge can be used to ascertain research priorities to maximise the quality of care in this setting.