Aims

The extended wait that most patients are now experiencing for hip and knee arthroplasty has raised questions about whether reliance on waiting time as the primary driver for prioritization is ethical, and if other additional factors should be included in determining surgical priority. Our Prioritization of THose aWaiting hip and knee ArthroplastY (PATHWAY) project will explore which perioperative factors are important to consider when prioritizing those on the waiting list for hip and knee arthroplasty, and how these factors should be weighted. The final product will include a weighted benefit score that can be used to aid in surgical prioritization for those awaiting elective primary hip and knee arthroplasty.

There is increasing popularity in the use of artificial intelligence and machine-learning techniques to provide diagnostic and prognostic models for various aspects of Trauma & Orthopaedic surgery. However, correct interpretation of these models is difficult for those without specific knowledge of computing or health data science methodology. Lack of current reporting standards leads to the potential for significant heterogeneity in the design and quality of published studies. We provide an overview of machine-learning techniques for the lay individual, including key terminology and best practice reporting guidelines.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(12):1754–1758.

The aim of this study was to identify the effect of COVID-19 lockdown on the rates, types, mechanisms and mortality of musculoskeletal trauma across Scotland.

Data for all musculoskeletal trauma requiring operative treatment was collected prospectively from five orthopaedic units across Scotland during the initial lockdown period (23/03/2020-28/05/2020). This was compared with data for the same timeframe in 2018 and 2019. Data collected included all cases requiring surgery, injury type, mechanism of injury, and inpatient mortality.

1315 patients received operative treatment in 2020 compared to 1791 in 2019 and 1719 in 2018. The numbers of all injury types decreased, but the relative frequency of hip fractures increased(36.3% 2020 vs 30.2% 2019, p<0.0001 & 30.7% 2018, p<0.0001). Significant increases were seen in proportion of DIY-related injuries(3.1% 2020 vs 1.7% 2019, p=0.01 & 1.6% 2018, p<0.01) and injuries caused by falls(65.6% 2020 vs 62.6% 2019, p=0.08 & 61.9% 2018, p=0.05). Significant decreases were seen in proportion of RTCs(2.6% 2020 vs 5.4% 2019, p<0.0001 & 4.2% 2018, p=0.02) and occupational injuries(1.8% 2020 vs 3.0% 2019, p=0.03 & 2.3% 2018, p=0.01). A significant increase in proportion of self-harm injuries was seen(1.7% 2020 vs 1.1% 2019, p=0.19 & 0.5% 2018, p<0.0001). Mortality of trauma patients was significantly higher in 2020 (4.9%), than in 2019 (3.2%, p=0.02) and 2018 (2.6%, p<0.0001).

In conclusion, lockdown has resulted in a marked reduction of musculoskeletal trauma requiring surgery in Scotland. There have been major changes in types and mechanisms of injury, and mortality of trauma patients has risen significantly.

The rising prevalence of osteoarthritis, associated with an ageing population, is expected to deliver increasing demand across Scotland for primary hip and knee arthroplasty in the future.

Understanding the scale of potential change to operative workflow is essential to ensure adequate provision of services, and prevent prolonged waiting times that can cause patient harm.

We therefore set out to provide projections of future primary hip and knee arthroplasty out to 2038 utilising historical trend data (2008–2018) from the Scottish Arthroplasty Project. All analyses were performed using the Holt's exponential smoothing projection method with the forecast package in R statistics. Results were adjusted for projected future population estimates provided by National Records of Scotland. Independent age & sex group predictions were also performed. All results are presented per 100,000 population at-risk per year (/100k/year).

The predicted rise of primary hip arthroplasty for all ages is from 120/100k/year in 2018 to 152/100k/year in 2038, a 27% increase. The predicted rise of primary knee arthroplasty for all ages is from 164/100k/year in 2018 to 220/100k/year in 2038, a 34% increase. Based on a static 3 day length of stay average this would see 4280 additional patient bed days for hips, and 7392 for knees, required nationally per year by 2038. The associated supplementary cost to the NHS is anticipated to be around £21 million per annum.

Knowledge of increasing resource utilisation and cost associated with predicted future demand for primary hip and knee arthroplasty provides key information for service organisation and delivery.

Over the last decade stemless shoulder arthroplasty has become increasingly popular. However, stability of metaphyseal loading humeral components remains a concern. This study aimed to assess the stability of the Affinis stemless humeral component using Radiostereometric analysis (RSA).

Patients underwent total shoulder arthroplasty via a standardised technique with a press-fit stemless humeral component and a cemented pegged glenoid. Tantalum beads were inserted into the humerus at the time of operation. RSA of the relaxed shoulder was completed at weeks 1, 6, 13, 26, 52 and 104 post-operatively. Stressed RSA with 12 newtons of abduction force was completed from week 13 onwards. ABRSA 5.0 software (Downing Imaging Limited, Aberdeen) was used to calculate humeral component migration and induced movement.

15 patients were recruited. Precision was: 0.041, 0.034, 0.086 and 0.101 mm for Superior, Medial, Posterior and Total Point Motion (TPM) respectively. The mean TPM over 2 years was 0.24 (0.30) mm, (Mean (Standard deviation)). The mean rate of migration per 3 month time period decreased from 0.45 (0.31) to 0.02 (0.01) mm over 2 years. Mean inducible movement TPM peaked at 26 weeks at 0.1 (0.08) mm, which reduced to 0.07 (0.06) mm by 104 weeks when only 3 patients had measurable inducible motion. There was no clear trend in direction of induced movement. There were no adverse events or revisions required.

We conclude migration of the humeral component was low with little inducible movement in the majority of patients implying initial and 2 year stability of the stemless humeral component.

Aims

The UK government declared a national lockdown on 23 March 2020 to reduce transmission of COVID-19. This study aims to identify the effect of lockdown on the rates, types, mechanisms, and mortality of musculoskeletal trauma across Scotland.