Mirels’ score predicts the likelihood of sustaining pathological fractures using pain, lesion site, size and morphology. The aim is to investigate its reproducibility, reliability and accuracy in upper limb bony metastases and validate its use in pathological fracture prediction.

A retrospective cohort study of patients with upper limb metastases, referred to an Orthopaedic Trauma Centre (2013–18). Mirels’ was calculated in 32 patients; plain radiographs at presentation scored by 6 raters. Radiological aspects were scored twice by each rater, 2-weeks apart. Inter- and intra-observer reliability were calculated (Fleiss’ kappa test). Bland-Altman plots compared variances of individual score components &total Mirels’ score.

Mirels’ score of ≥9 did not accurately predict lesions that would fracture (11% 5/46 vs 65.2% Mirels’ score ≤8, p<0.0001). Sensitivity was 14.3% &specificity was 72.7%. When Mirels’ cut-off was lowered to ≥7, patients were more likely to fracture (48% 22/46 versus 28% 13/46, p=0.045). Sensitivity rose to 62.9%, specificity fell to 54.6%. Kappa values for interobserver variability were 0.358 (fair, 0.288–0.429) for lesion size, 0.107 (poor, 0.02–0.193) for radiological appearance and 0.274 (fair, 0.229–0.318) for total Mirels’ score. Values for intraobserver variability were 0.716 (good, 95% CI 0.432–0.999) for lesion size, 0.427 (moderate, 95% CI 0.195–0.768) for radiological appearance and 0.580 (moderate, 0.395–0.765) for total Mirels’ score.

We showed moderate to substantial agreement between &within raters using Mirels’ score on upper limb radiographs. Mirels’ has poor sensitivity &specificity predicting upper limb fractures - we recommend the cut-off score for prophylactic surgery should be lower than for lower limb lesions.

Aims

The early mortality in patients with hip fractures from bony metastases is unknown. The objectives of this study were to quantify 30- and 90-day mortality in patients with proximal femoral metastases, and to create a mortality prediction tool based on biomarkers associated with early death.

Early mortality in patients with hip fractures due to bony metastases is unknown. The aim was to quantify 30 and 90-day mortality in patients with metastatic hip fractures and identify markers associated with early death.

Consecutive patients referred to orthopaedics with a metastatic proximal femoral fracture/impending fracture over a six-year period were compared to a matched control group of non-malignant hip fractures. Minimum follow-up was 1 year and data was analysed using the student´s t-test (significance p<0.05).

From Jan 2010-Dec 2015, 163 patients were referred with metastatic proximal femoral lesions. 90-day mortality was three times higher than controls (44% 71/163 vs. 12% 4/33, p<0.01). Mean time from referral to surgery was longer in impending versus completed fractures (11 and 4 days respectively, p<0.05).

Multiple biochemical markers were associated with early mortality in the metastatic group. Patients who died early were more likely to demonstrate low haemoglobin and albumin, and high c-reactive protein, platelets, urea, alkaline phosphatase and calcium (p<0.05).

Several biochemical markers associated with early mortality reached clinical and statistical significance. These markers were combined into a score out of 7 and indicated a higher early mortality in metastatic patients compared to controls. Patients with a score of 5–6/7 were 31 times more likely to die within 90 days versus controls.

This scoring system could be utilised to predict early mortality and guide management. The average delay to surgery of 4 days (completed) and 11 days (impending fractures) identifies a window to intervene and correct these abnormalities to improve survival.

There is comprehensive data addressing the 6 to 18-month survival in patients with pathological neck of femur (NOF) fractures due to bony metastases. However, little is known about early mortality in this group. The aim was to quantify 30 and 90-day mortality in patients with pathological NOF lesions/fractures and identify biochemical markers associated with early death.

Orthopaedic trauma lists over one year were used to identify patients with a pathological NOF fracture/lesion.

33 patients had a metastatic NOF fracture/lesion and were compared to a control group of age and gender-matched non-pathological NOF fractures. Time from referral to surgery was higher in patients with a pathological fracture compared to a pathological lesion (average 7.4 and 0.6 days, p<0.05). 30 and 90-day mortality was higher in the metastatic group compared to controls (15% 5/33 vs 9% 3/33 p<0.05, and 42% 14/33 vs 12% 4/33 p<0.01, respectively).

Patients with early mortality had lower average sodium (135 vs 138, p<0.05), creatinine (48 vs 62, p<0.05) and APTT (27 vs 32, p<0.05). They had a higher average WCC (11.3 vs 7, p<0.05) and CRP (55 vs 18, p<0.01). Metastatic patients with early mortality had lower albumin (20 vs 30, p<0.01) and haemoglobin (102 vs 121, p<0.01), which were higher in the control NOF group with early mortality (albumin 28 and haemoglobin 118 respectively, p<0.05).

Patients with pathological NOF lesions have multiple biochemical abnormalities associated with early mortality. A prospective study is proposed to assess whether correction of these abnormalities can improve survival in this group.