Abstract
Background
Serious traumatic injury is a leading cause of death and disability globally, with the majority of survivors developing chronic pain.
Methods
The aims of this study were to describe early predictors of poor long-term outcome for post-trauma pain. We conducted a prospective observational study, recruiting patients admitted to a Major Trauma Centre hospital in England within 14 days of their injuries, and followed them for 12 months. We defined a poor outcome as Chronic Pain Grade ≥ II and measured this at both 6-months and 12-months. A broad range of candidate predictors were used, including surrogates for pain mechanisms, quantitative sensory testing, and psychosocial factors. Univariate models were used to identify the strongest predictors of poor outcome, which were entered into multivariate models.
Results
124 eligible participants were recruited. At 6-months, 19 (23.2%) of 82 respondents reported a good outcome, whereas at 12-months 27 (61.4%) of 44 respondents reported a good outcome. The multivariate model for 6-months produced odds ratios for a unit increase in: number of fractures, 3.179 (0.52 to 19.61); average pain intensity, 1.611 (0.96 to 2.7); pain extent, 1.138 (0.92 to 1.41) and post-traumatic stress symptoms, 1.044 (0.10 to 1.10). At 12-months, equivalent values were: number of fractures, 1.653 (0.77 to 3.55); average pain intensity, 0.967 (0.67 to 1.40); pain extent, 1.062 (0.92 to 1.23) and post-traumatic stress symptoms, 1.025 (0.99 to 1.07).
Conclusion
A poor long-term pain outcome from musculoskeletal traumatic injuries can be predicted by measures recorded within days of injury.
Conflicts of interest: No conflicts of interest
Sources of funding: This study was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Surgical Reconstruction and Microbiology Research Centre (SRMRC).
