Abstract
Single level discectomy (SLD) is one of the most commonly performed spinal surgery procedures. Two key drivers of their cost-of-care are duration of surgery (DOS) and postoperative length of stay (LOS). Therefore, the ability to preoperatively predict SLD DOS and LOS has substantial implications for both hospital and healthcare system finances, scheduling and resource allocation. As such, the goal of this study was to predict DOS and LOS for SLD using machine learning models (MLMs) constructed on preoperative factors using a large North American database.
The American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical and Quality Improvement (NSQIP) database was queried for SLD procedures from 2014-2019. The dataset was split in a 60/20/20 ratio of training/validation/testing based on year. Various MLMs (traditional regression models, tree-based models, and multilayer perceptron neural networks) were used and evaluated according to 1) mean squared error (MSE), 2) buffer accuracy (the number of times the predicted target was within a predesignated buffer), and 3) classification accuracy (the number of times the correct class was predicted by the models). To ensure real world applicability, the results of the models were compared to a mean regressor model.
A total of 11,525 patients were included in this study. During validation, the neural network model (NNM) had the best MSEs for DOS (0.99) and LOS (0.67). During testing, the NNM had the best MSEs for DOS (0.89) and LOS (0.65). The NNM yielded the best 30-minute buffer accuracy for DOS (70.9%) and ≤120 min, >120 min classification accuracy (86.8%). The NNM had the best 1-day buffer accuracy for LOS (84.5%) and ≤2 days, >2 days classification accuracy (94.6%). All models were more accurate than the mean regressors for both DOS and LOS predictions.
We successfully demonstrated that MLMs can be used to accurately predict the DOS and LOS of SLD based on preoperative factors. This big-data application has significant practical implications with respect to surgical scheduling and inpatient bedflow, as well as major implications for both private and publicly funded healthcare systems. Incorporating this artificial intelligence technique in real-time hospital operations would be enhanced by including institution-specific operational factors such as surgical team and operating room workflow.
