Abstract
Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a well-known complication of traumatic elbow injuries. The reported rates of post-traumatic HO formation vary from less than 5% with simple elbow dislocations, to greater than 50% in complex fracture-dislocations. Previous studies have identified fracture-dislocations, delayed surgical intervention, and terrible triad injuries as risk factors for HO formation. There is, however, a paucity of literature regarding the accuracy of diagnosing post-traumatic elbow HO. Therefore, the purpose of our study was to determine the inter-rater reliability of HO diagnosis using standard radiographs of the elbow at 52 weeks post-injury, as well as to report on the rate of mature compared with immature HO. We hypothesized inter-rater reliability would be poor among raters for HO formation.
Prospectively collected data from a large clinical trial was reviewed by three independent reviewers (one senior orthopedic resident, one senior radiology resident, and one expert upper extremity orthopedic surgeon). Each reviewer examined anonymized 52-week post-injury radiographs of the elbow and recorded: 1. the presence or absence of HO, 2. the location of HO, 3. the size of the HO (in cm, if present), and 4. the maturity of the HO formation. Maturity was defined by consensus prior to image review and defined as an area of well-defined cortical and medullary bone outside the cortical borders of the humerus, ulna, or radius. Immature lesions were defined as an area of punctate calcification with an ill-defined cloud-like density outside the cortical borders of the humerus, ulna or radius. Data were collected using a standardized online data collection form (CognizantMD, Toronto, ON, CA). Inter-rater reliability was calculated using Fleiss’ Kappa statistic and a multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for HO formation in general, as well as mature HO at 52 weeks post injury. Statistical analysis was performed using RStudio (version1.4, RStudio, Boston, MA, USA).
A total of 79 radiographs at the 52-week follow-up were reviewed (54% male, mean age 50, age SD 14, 52% operatively treated). Inter-rater reliability using Fleiss’ Kappa was k= 0.571 (p = 0.0004) indicating moderate inter-rater reliability among the three reviewers. The rate of immature HO at 52 weeks was 56%. The multivariate logistic regression analysis identified male sex as a significant risk factor for HO development (OR 5.29, 1.55-20.59 CI, p = 0.011), but not for HO maturity at 52 weeks. Age, time to surgery, and operative intervention were not found to be significant predictors for either HO formation or maturity of the lesion in this cohort.
Our study demonstrates moderate inter-rater reliability in determining the presence of HO at 52 weeks post-elbow injury. There was a high rate (56%) of immature HO at 52-week follow-up. We also report the finding of male sex as a significant risk factor for post traumatic HO development. Future research directions could include investigation into possible male predominance for traumatic HO formation, as well as improving inter-rater reliability through developing a standardized and validated classification system for reporting the radiographic features of HO formation around the elbow.
