Abstract
A large proportion of wait times for primary total knee (TKA) and hip (THA) arthroplasty is the time from primary care referral to surgical consultation. To our knowledge, no study has investigated whether a referral Oxford Knee or Hip Score (OKHS) could be used to triage non-surgical referrals appropriately. The primary purpose of the current study was to determine if a referral OKHS has the predictive ability to discriminate when a knee or hip referral will be deemed conservative as compared to surgical by the surgeon during their first consultation, and to identify an OKHS cut-off point that accurately predicts when a primary TKA or THA referral will be deemed conservative.
We retrospectively reviewed all consecutive primary TKA and THA consultations from a single surgeon's tertiary, high volume practice over a three-year period. Patients with a pre-consultation OKHS, BMI < 4 1, and no absolute contraindication to TJR were included. Consultation knees/hips were categorized into two groups based on surgeon's decision, those that were offered TJR during their first consolation (surgical) versus those that were not (conservative). Baseline demographic data and OKHS were abstracted. Variables of interest were compared between cohorts using the exact chi-square test and Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Spearman's rank correlation coefficients were used to measure association between pre-consult OKHS and the surgeon's decision. A receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) and to identify a cut-off point for the pre-operative OKHS that identified whether or not a referral was deemed conservative. TKA and THA referrals were analyzed separately.
The study included 1,436 knees (1,016 patients) with a median OKS of 25 (IQR 19–32) and 478 hips (388 patients) with a median OHS of 22 (IQR 16–29). Median pre-consultation OKHS demonstrated clinically and statistically significant differences between the surgical versus conservative cohorts (p 32 (sensitivity=0.997, NPV=0.992) and for hips is OHS >34 (sensitivity=0.997 NPV=0.978). ROC analysis identified severable potential lower OKHS thresholds, depending on weight of prioritization of sensitivity, specificity, and NPV.
Referral OKS and OHS demonstrate good ability to discriminate when a primary TKA or THA referral will be deemed non-surgical versus surgical at their first consultation in a single surgeon's practice. Multiple potential effective OKHS thresholds can be applied as a tool to decrease wait times for primary joint arthroplasty. However, a cost analysis would aid in identifying the optimal cut-off score, and these findings need to be externally validated before they can be broadly applied.
