Abstract
Purpose and background
There is lacking evidence about the prognostic role of anxiety as prognostic in acute low back pain patients. The objective of this study was to determine whether patients with acute low back pain (ALBP) are at risk to develop chronic low back pain (CLBP) and pain-related disability after 12 weeks due to high anxiety levels.
Methods and results
An observational multi-centre study was conducted in primary physiotherapy care with measurements at baseline and at 12 weeks including known prognostic factors and psychological candidate predictors for CLBP. Two hundred and four participants completed both assessments of which 51 and 54 were classified as having less than 50% decrease in pain and pain-related disability, respectively. For pain, the final model contained higher pain intensity, longer pain duration, depression symptoms, and state anxiety with explained variance 0.30, sensitivity 0.74, specificity 0.82, Likelihood Ratio 4.1 (95% CI 2.0 to 6.1) and Area Under the Curve 0.78 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.85). For pain-related disability, trait anxiety, depression symptoms, and state anxiety contributed independently to the prediction with the model's explained variance of 0.19, sensitivity 0.78, specificity 0.78, Likelihood Ratio 3.0 (95% CI 2.0 to 4.5), and Area Under the Curve 0.73 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.81).
Conclusion
State anxiety in patients with ALBP is an independent predictor of CLBP at 12 weeks after baseline in primary physiotherapy care and should be measured, in addition to known prognostic factors and depression symptoms, in order to intervene and potentially decrease duration of complaints.
No conflict of interest
No funding obtained
